Weather Models Project Ice, Sleet, Snow In DFW

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry can be seen weekdays on CBS 11 New...
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I wanted to share with you what one of the forecast models is showing for Thursday night into Friday morning.  Below are two images showing the projected ice accumulation and also the projected sleet/snow accumulation.  Take this for what it is.  It is a forecast model, it is not 100% going to happen.  It is a possibility of what could happen.  This would be the worst case scenario for DFW.

ICE ACCUMULATION

Ice Forecast

SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION

Snowfall Forecast

AMOUNT OF ICE DISCUSSION

We will likely see some freezing rain in the DFW area.  The model shown above has us seeing a lot.  But the real question will come down to just how cold it gets while it is raining.  Below I have a nice temperature chart showing the Best Case and Worst Case scenario for Thursday night into Friday morning.

Temp Explainer

HOW TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT SEVERITY OF ICE:  I will be watching the temperatures very closely Thursday night into Friday morning as rain falls.  The best case scenario is where temps stay in the 30 to 34 degree range.  That would mean just a few icy spots on bridges and overpasses and some ice in the trees.  Worst case is temperatures drop into the 26 to 30 degree range for several hours while rain is coming down.  That would mean ice on all surfaces including roads.  A Better Case would be for temps to drop below 26 degrees and we get all snow.  So what will happen.
Probability of each case:
BETTER CASE “All Snow” – Least Likely. Very low chance.
BEST CASE – 40% Chance of happening
WORST CASE – 60% Chance of happening
How bad it is will also be determined by where you live.  If you are northwest of DFW the worst case scenario probability is higher.  And if you are east of Dallas the probability is lower.
Here is a nice graphic from the NWS in Fort Worth on possible impacts for different areas in North Texas.
image3 Weather Models Project Ice, Sleet, Snow In DFW
Stay tuned to CBS 11 and CBSDFW.com for the very latest.
Larry Mowry