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Storms & Cold For The Weekend

By Chief Meteorologist Larry Mowry
Severe Risk1
(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Larry Mowry
Larry joined the CBS 11 Storm Team in January 2008 from CBS affil...
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Another beautiful day in North Texas as high temperatures climbed to 70 degrees.  But some changes are on the way.  You might be able to sense it as high clouds are streaming in from the west.

THURSDAY

Windy and mild.  Temperatures again near 70 degrees, but there will be mostly cloudy skies and winds gusting out of the south to 30 mph.

FRIDAY

A cold front will pass thru DFW around the midday hours.  Temps ahead of the front will be in the 70s, behind the front up toward the Red River temps will be in the 40s.  I expect temperatures to stay around 60 degrees thru much of the day on Friday in DFW, but then fall into the 50s by late Friday afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

Showers and thunderstorms are likely.  A few storms could be severe.  Temperatures stay in the 50s for most of the day on Saturday.

STORM SETUP

At 5pm on Wednesday, here is where the cold front is located.  It is in the northern Plains.

TX Temp Plot w Contour

That cold front will move southward, while at the same time an upper level low will be diving over California.

TX SATRAD MASTER11

That upper level low will get here as the cold front stalls out over North Texas.

TX SATRAD MASTER11a

This looks to be a pretty strong upper level disturbance.  And with that there will the threat of a few strong to severe storms.

Severe Risk1

Much of the area is under a slight risk for severe weather on Saturday.

Severe Risk1a

The most important thing to watch on Saturday is the location of the stalled out cold front.  Along and to the east of that front is where the risk for severe weather is higher.

Severe Risk1b

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS

Behind the front on Saturday temperatures will be in the 50s.  There will be thunderstorms on the back side of the front.  The main threat from these storms would be larger hail.  But east of the front temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s.  In this area, the greatest threats will be hail, high wind and even an isolated tornado threat.

HEAVY RAIN

There will be lots of moisture in the atmosphere.  In fact, an unusually high amount of moisture in the atmosphere for December.  That will mean that some areas could see some heavy rain.  Below is a rough estimate map showing rainfall amounts that will be possible from Friday night thru Saturday night.

NTX Rain Chances11aaa

That 1.50″ to 3″ amount will be a small swatch along where the front stalls.  So on the map above I have it drawn from Corsicana to Canton to Texarkana.  But it could be a little farther to the east or even west depending on the location of the front during the day on Saturday.

SUNDAY

It dries out Saturday night, but it will be cold and windy on Sunday.  Temperatures stay in the 40s all day Sunday with north winds gusting to 25 mph.  Sunday night expect a freeze.

7-DAY FORECAST

Larry Mowry