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Up and Down We Go

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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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Today was remarkable for the rapid warm-up from a chilly morning. Typically the morning low jumps about 20-degrees to get to the afternoon high. That’s refered to as the “diurnal range”.  This morning the low at DFW Airport  dropped to 26°(our official temperature site is DFW though, it should be said, no one lives at the airport). This morning featured clear skies, low humidity and a southwest wind. At 8am it was 28°. By 10am it was 48°. By 11am it was almost 58°. It got all the way to 68° .  That’s a jump of 42 degrees, only the second time in the last three years we’ve had a diurnal that started with a four.

Above Freezing1

Yesterday at 4pm the dew point at DFW was an extremely dry -3 degrees (the relative humidity was a scant 17%). That is the driest air we’ve had over the metroplex since 1996. Crazy.

Tomorrow it’ll be even warmer, I believe it’ll get into the mid-70’s unless the morning clouds don’t clear away.

Above Freezing2

Down over our southwest counties it’ll get in the upper 70’s:

NTX Tom Highs Manual

But the cold, cold arctic air of winter is bottled up just over the Canadian border and ready to make a mad dash to the Red River line. High pressure over western Canada will team up with a fast-moving low that will race into the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours. The winds that wrap around each system will push this heavy, cold air rapidly across the central plains. It should arrive here by late tomorrow night.

RPM 12km Wind Speed Wide Texas

The area in deep orange and red represent wind speeds near 50-mph. This will produce a blizzard over part of Minnesota and Iowa. By the time the high winds reach here early Monday morning we’ll likely have sustained winds over 30-mph. You can imagine what this does to our temperatures:

Above Freezing

So the forty-degree rise in get just today will be countered with a forty degree drop from Sunday afternoon to Monday. If this dramatic change of weather seems familiar it’s because you remember last Thursday. That’s when the “feel-like” temperature by 1pm was 12°. The day before at 3pm it was a balmy 60° and sunny.

FW_SKYCAST_TEMP_CHANGE

We don’t expect any precipitation from this change over to cold; there is a slight chance some sleet/freezing rain could again fall over the Hill Country and Houston like last week. Below is the latest NAM forecast run show snow reaching all the way into the Florida panhandle by Tue/Wed:

Be39ITHCMAAHtDl

Here though the air will be just to dry. Here is the extended forecast; it shows we warm right back up to 70° by next weekend. Wow. Can we get off this roller coaster anytime soon?

Extended PM

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