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Warm Sunday, Winter Monday

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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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It’s been a cold, cloudy February so far, just look at the afternoon highs since Feb. 1st (note: Saturday’s official high happened in the early morning hours before a front arrived, it actually was in the 60′s overnight)

FW_SKYCAST_TEMP_CHANGE

And it’s been cloudy as well. The only day when we got anything more than a few hours of sun was last Wednesday:

7DAY TREND JEFF

Just look at how we ended the work week. It slipped below freezing early Wednesday morning and stayed below freezing until early Saturday morning. That’s a 72-hour run of at-or-below-freezing, the longest run since January of 2007 (84 hours back then). That’s the second time this winter we had a run like this; we went 71 hours back in early December.

Above Freezing

Sunday starts with some thick fog across north Texas, especially on the north side of a stationary front the straddles the metro area:

fOG

There is a chance for some freezing fog on the north side of the pink line, where temperatures could fall into the upper 20′s. Freezing fog can create ice on the bridges and overpasses if it’s dense enough.

Highs tomorrow should get back into the 50′s despite the morning fog and afternoon clouds. And a cold front! It comes through in the morning and we have a north wind all day. But the bulk of the cold air doesn’t arrive until overnight into Monday. Then winter is back. Look at the difference in daytime highs from one day to the next:

NTX Tomorrow Highs     NTX Tomorrow Highs1

With that cold air in place a storm system out of the west moves over us. This means another round of winter weather is forecast for north Texas. It could start as early as Monday morning with some freezing drizzle just north of metro area over Wise, Denton and Collin Counties. This could go on all day in that area. The only good news about that is it appears right now amounts will be very light.

NTX Rain Chances1

The precipitation will start picking up by Monday night. The Tuesday morning commute is most at risk of suffering winter weather; I expect a wintry mix could be falling through the morning. Again, there is not a whole lot of moisture for this storm to work with so amounts should be light.

NTX Rain Chances2

We are forecasting temperatures to get above freezing that afternoon so there is a good chance that the roads will be in better shape by afternoon, especially if amounts of that wintry mix earlier are light.

NTX Rain Chances3

Winter Watches are already out for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas for Monday and Tuesday as heavier snow will fall just to our north:

TX FutureCast GFS Day 3_6

For north Texas our northeast corner has the best chance of accumulating snow:

Snowfall Forecast2

Just a difference of a couple of degrees of a more southern track of this storm will make for big changes in the forecast. Please stay posted on this winter weather!

After this round it looks like a nice warm-up in store for us as we count down to Valentine’s day:

Extended PM

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