By Jeff Ray

The fog around this morning morphs into partly sunny skies this afternoon. Expect gusty south winds and high humidity through the day. Highs will again reach well-above normal numbers:

NTX Afternoon

About those temperatures:  the average high for this date over the last thirty years is 61°F.  That’s what we consider “typical” but this means very little in practice. Climate is what you expect but weather is what you get, we use “normal” to serve as a comparison to the weather of the moment. These days we’ve been WAY above normal:


February took quite a dramatic turn; from very cold to very warm in a very short time. Just compare the average afternoon high from the first two weeks of this month with the third week (this includes the forecast over the next few days). It jumped more than 30 degrees:

Warmer Then Colder

We have a cold front coming in tomorrow during the late morning hours. First thing you’ll notice about tomorrow is just how warm and humid it starts. The morning temperature will be around the “average” high:


Then the winds turn to the northwest and the dewpoints plummet as the front moves through. The temperatures won’t move much, in fact, they’ll probably drop a little toward the end of the day:


Tomorrow the low humidity combined with strong winds (gusts will reach over 35-mph) will put us at risk for grass fires to start and spread quickly. It’s been dry so far this year, DFW Airport has only reported .71″ of rain since January 1st. The last big rain was back in December 21st (1.48″, one of the biggest 24-hour rains in 2013). With no signicant rain chance in the forecast tomorrow a Fire Watch is in effect for the western half of our coverage area. Please don’t start any outdoor fires and watch those cigarette butts:

NTX Fire Threat

The cold front that comes through tomorrow will create some thunderstorms, the risk is east of the metro area. These storms will likely reach severe limits tomorrow afternoon and evening across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Tornadoes are even possible along the squall line that will develop ahead of the cold front:

US Airport Cast2 Severe Risk Day 1 to Day 2

On the north side of the strong surface low pushing this front blizzard conditions will exist over parts of Iowa and Minnesota. Heavy show will move across the Great Lakes:

Snow Sleet Ice   US Snow Forecast1

This warm air will stick around north Texas into the weekend. The jet stream is way north:

TX SatRad Master1

This all changes next however as the jet stream dips into the deep south and returns winter to the southern plains:

TX SatRad Master11

So yes, yesterday we had our first 80° day of the year (it actually hit 82°) but it’s not spring just yet. It’s officially 29 days away still.

Next Wednesday we’ll be in the 50’s:

Extended AM