By Jeff Ray

The calendar says February but it certainly didn’t feel that way today. With the ample sunshine and south winds temperatures shot up into the mid-70’s this afternoon. Wow.

Almanac PM

But it appears that winter will return to north Texas, at least we’ll have temperatures more in line with the season. Fortunately for most who enjoy the weekends off this transition happens Monday. Last Tuesday we got close to a record high. By next Tuesday we’ll be cloudy, wet and cold. Wow.

Ten Day Temps

But tomorrow shouldn’t be so bad. The dewpoints will continue to climb overnight with a south wind. Clouds will quickly move in; we’ll have some fog and drizzle to start our Sunday. Temperatures will be very warm, in the upper 50’s. The fog won’t be thick but the ceiling will be low.

NTX Fog FutureCast

Notice the cold front coming in from the northwest. While we are in the upper 50’s in the morning, Wichita Falls will be in the 30’s. This cold air will moderate during the day so we’ll reach a high of 70°. Barely. Lots of cloud cover through the day as the winds from the northwest start to pick up in the afternoon.

The cold air will continue to pour in overnight. By Monday morning we’ll be down in the 40’s with morning drizzle and overcast skies. We have a little rain in the forecast on Monday but highs will only reach into the mid-50’s.

NTX FutureCast NTX FutureCast2

The Polar Vortex is ready to make its way south again. While we just get a glancing blow from it this time we do have some freezing nights ahead of us. This mass of bitter cold again invades the Great Lakes and East Coast. It’s been like this all winter for them, one of the reasons natural gas prices are at all time highs:

GFS JetSteam Polar Low

On Tuesday a low pressure system will move right over us. It’ll be a cloudy day with temperatures in the 50’s all day. We have a chance of storms and our best chance of rain so far this year.

NTX FutureCast      NTX Rain Chances1

We sure could use the rain. We’ve had less than 3/4″ of an inch so far this year, one of driest starts to a year of record. Texas is cattle country and beef prices are also at all-time highs. Drought over the last three years has reduced the herd size to the lowest levels since the 60’s. But with the commodity price so high and cattle populations so low many ranchers are betting on rain this spring. Many held back a large part of their breed stock from market (despite the good money offered) so they can start to build their herds back up . Needless to say they look how the year has started and are worried.

Rain So Far This Year

Here is your extended. Another rain chance on Friday:

Extended PM