By Jeff Ray

As you know, it’s been a VERY dry start to 2014. A mere .84″ of rain has fallen at DFW Airport (the official weather site for the metroplex); that’s the driest start to a year in over 100 years (record keeping started in 1899).


We desperately need the water; both Lake Granbury and Lake Ray Hubbard  are currently at the lowest water levels they have ever been.

The best chance of rain so far this year is shaping up to arrive just in time of the weekend. Today (like the last several days) was just wonderful weather, highs reached into the 70’s with a breezy south wind. Tonight it’ll be very mild, lows will only drop down to the upper-50’s.

Half Page 3 Panel

Out over the desert southwest there sits a powerful upper level low that moves into Texas starting tomorrow morning:


This system will produce a surface low that spins up just to our west and drags first a dryline and then a cold front into north Texas. Severe weather is possible with this system:

Severe RiskA

We expect the dryline to fire up a line of storms in the early afternoon to the west and southwest of the metroplex. These storms have the potential to produce damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes south of the metro area. As the cold front pushes the low and dryline over the metro, a line of storms are forecast to roll through at the close of the day into early evening. Large hail and damaging winds are possible.

Rainfall amounts will likely be heaviest in in our northeast quadrant; this is where the higher risk of hail exists as well:

NTX Rain Chances1


Severe Timeline

We expect the morning to be just cloudy and mild with a few passing showers. Here is FutureSky Forecast for 9am:

Sat 9am

As get into the afternoon the activity will start to develop and approach from the west:

Sat 3p

By the end of the day there should be full-blown line of strong storms moving across north Texas and the DFW area:

Sat 8pm

The surface low is going to push the cold front through downtown Dallas in the late evening hour bringing an end to the severe threat (it will continue well into the night to the east and southeast).

Sat 11p

The wind is really going to pick-up behind this front out of the northwest. Through the night you’ll likely hear the winds rattling the windows. This powerful wind (gusts will be around 40 mph) will be around all the way into the noon hour on Sunday before it starts to taper off.

Wind Sunday

This north wind is going to make for a dramatically colder day on Sunday. It’ll be cloudy with occasional light rain. There could even be a few spits of sleet in the late afternoon as the cold air drops the temperatures keeps highs in the low 50’s all day.

NTX Tom Highs Manual

Lows on Monday morning will get all the way down to the mid-30’s for Dallas and Tarrant counties; Denton and Collin Counties and north to the Red River might see a freeze in some locations. The typical last freeze of the season is March 13th; this could be the coldest night we’ll have for some time. Spring officially starts next Thursday.

Its a cold start to the work week but we’ll recover nicely. By Tuesday highs will be in the 80’s with strong south winds. Another cold front comes in Tuesday night but the temperature drop won’t be a dramatic:

Extended PM

(Thanks to Larry Mowry for input and some of the graphics)