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Opening Day Nice, Storms Ahead

(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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The strong south winds and low humidity have created critical fire weather conditions for this afternoon. Please no outdoor burning; grass fires could spread rapidly:

KTVT Standard GOTHAM

Lows this morning varied greatly from location to location depending on the winds. Where it was steady out of the southeast (like Decatur) the temperatures stayed in the 50′s. Where the winds were calm or barely moving temperatures dropped to the 30′s (like Denton, just 26 miles to the east).  The official low for the morning at DFW was 48°.

Metro Low Temps Today Auto Plot

By 11am the temperature was almost 20-degrees warmer. Dewpoints are in the 30′s (very dry air). Highs will reach all the way to 80° from Ft. Worth to the west.  Another fine day in store for us to top of a weekend free of weather woe.

NTX Tom Highs Manual

The strong winds this afternoon teamed with the low humidity will increase the risk of grass fires in our western half.  Please no outdoor burning and be smart with those cigarette butts.

NTX Fire Threat1

For Opening Day on Monday highs should get close to 80° despite the cloud cover. It’ll be windy with gusts around 25 mph.

RANGERS OPENING DAY1RANGERS OPENING DAY

We have enjoyed very low humidity this weekend teamed with all this sunshine. A strong surface low over the northern plains will pull up a strong low-level jet that pumps moisture right back to the northern edge fo the Coastal Plain (north Texas). Dewpoints are back in t0 the 60′s by tomorrow afternoon:

RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide2

Now all we need is a trigger to lift this moisture up into the atmosphere and produce some rain/storm chances. We have a different lifting mechanism each day from tomorrow to Thursday. Lets go over them by the day.

MONDAY:  A strong surface low will produce blizzard conditions in the north. It will push a cold front almost to the Red River. This will produce a 20% chance of storms across our northern tier counties by afternoon and evening. The higher risk of storms will be in the central plains:

US Snow Forecast2US Snow Forecast1

TUESDAY: The morning starts with a dryline to our west and a stalled frontal boundary north. The dryline moves east during the day, where you see the sharp bends this become areas favorable for thunderstorm development. By afternoon storms should develop, they’ll stay well west of the metroplex:

US Snow Forecast3A US Snow Forecast3

WEDNESDAY: An active southern jet stream will bring a upper-level disturbance over the warm, moist air in place. Right now it appears the best storm chances will be across the northeast sections of north Texas. Some big rains are possible with these storms:

US FutureCast_a1US FutureCast_a2US FutureCast_a

THURSDAY: This appears to be the big show for the work week. All the elements at the surface and upper levels could come together to produce a severe weather outbreak. This is still days away so we’ll see if the upper level through arrives at the right time. It should bust open the cap and allow a dryline to create a squall line:

Thursday Storms2Thursday Storms2Thursday Storms

Here’s the extended. Lots of warm weather until next Friday. Right now going with the long-range forecast model that shows clouds, rain and a few storms:

Extended PM

With the storm season upon us please follow me on Twitter and on Facebook. The CBS11 Storm Team will keep you posted.

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