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Rain in the Weekend Forecast

(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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It’s not as if the DFW area is without a slew of big events to attend this weekend between the Texas Motor Speedway and the Final Four.  With all the guests in town we’ll all have to double up on our hospitality, mother nature isn’t doing the best job for us. We have a cold rain in the forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night:

RAIN CHANCE LINE GRAPH

At least the weather won’t be anything like last night. We had over 50 reports of large hail and (so far) two tornadoes. You can see how the bulk of the hail reports covered Denton and Collin County:

Metro Hail2

The city of Denton was rocked with three separate hail events and over an inch of rain. This is a look at the hail core of the storm that passed over the north side of the city between 6:00pm- 7:00pm. Softball-size hail was reported:

Metro Hail3

This supercell marched almost directly east across Collin and Hunt counties producing large hail and tornado warnings. A tornado was reported in the town of Princeton in Collin Co. You can see how radar suspected as much, displaying the red swirls that you see below indicating intense rotation inside the storm:
Metro Hail3a

The cell produced damage over Hunt County and another tornado in Delta County. The town of Commerce took a direct shot. NWS survey teams are out logging the damage and will issue a final assessment later today or tomorrow.

Metro Hail3b

Now, on to the weekend weather forecast.

The O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 will be run tonight at Texas Motor Speedway under excellent conditions:

NASCAR OReilly

Clouds come in overnight; we don’t expect much sunshine this weekend. Even though yesterday we got into the 80’s; that warm weather is nowhere to be found this weekend for the Final Four:

NCAA Weekend

The weather set-up has a deep trough and upper-level low over the Arizona tomorrow. It will swing northeast  into the Central Plains:

TX FutureCast

It will help develop a surface low right along the Texas shoreline. This low will develop over Sunday and Monday and help produce wet conditions for us. The Gulf low will pump moisture over the top of the cool air in place and produce rain. It should start on Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday night:

TX FutureCast1 TX FutureCast3

The rain chances pick up Saturday afternoon into evening. The majority of the rain will fall on Sunday during the first half of the day. We are expecting light amounts but isolated areas could get a good soaking with the few thunderstorms we expect to develop:

NTX Rain Chances1 NTX Rain Chances111NTX Rain Chances11

The rain chances continue into Monday as another upper-level system moves overhead and gives us a 30% chance of rain during late in the day and early evening:

TX FutureCast4

The dry (and near perfect) weather returns as the majority of our out-of-town guests are all gone. It’ll be sunny and warm by the middle of next week.

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