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Severe Weather Risk Tomorrow

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(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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This is what the CBS11 Storm Team wants you to know most of all: tomorrow (Sunday) we have the risk of SEVERE WEATHER. The Storm Predication Center has drawn their black hash mark over the Metroplex and central Oklahoma in the Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow. This means the severe weather that is expected could produce storm reports well over the severe threshold: hail over 2″ in diameter for example (“Severe” is anything over 1″) or winds closer to 70 mph (“Severe” is 58 mph or greater).  The percentages you see mean that there is for the Red River counties of  north Texas a 30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any one location in the orange.

Tornado Risk Today

THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TOMORROW.  The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface that keeps the daytime heating from producing convective storms) could not break in the afternoon or simply just weaken, limiting the afternoon storm activity. The rain could linger longer into the morning or the clouds stick around and keep us from warming up. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PUT THE SEVERE RISK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.

Because the risk of these storms being so powerful we have to go with the correct alignment of all the major players to produce a severe weather outbreak. The morning rain leaves the metro area by 11am. We get some sunshine. The cap quickly is wiped away by the upper air trough. On this scenario this is the thinking:

The severe weather threat starts between 2pm – 3pm in our western counties (Jack to Comanche Counties) along the dry line. Those storms will be not great in coverage but powerful to their core. If you are outside during the afternoon in the metroplex keep an eye to the western sky. We are thinking those powerful storms will move in and across the metro area between 4pm and 7pm:

Severe Risk Day 2

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes are possible. The tornado threat is highest in the areas shaded in orange.

At the end of the day we watched this rain move into the Trans-Pecos of west Texas. This should expand in coverage as it moves across the Permian Basin and into north Texas by morning. It’ll be a cloudy, breezy morning with warm temperatures and high humidity:

KTVT Standard GOTHAM1 SunAM

After the morning rain moves off to the east we should have some clearing. If the rain slows down and arrives later in the morning we could end up with a wet mid-day instead. This will greatly lower the severe threat in the afternoon.

Out in the desert Southwest there is a powerful upper-level low and deep trough moving towards us:

KTVT Standard GOTHAM

When the lower-right quadrant of this trough moves over the dryline it should break apart the cap. This should produce an explosive growth of thunderstorms on the east side of the dry line. Those storms will then start moving toward the metro area from the west.

Sun4 Sun7p

Later overnight a cold front sweeps in from the north. IF IT ARRIVES BEFORE MIDNIGHT we could have some strong storms with damaging winds move across our northeast, from Collin and Hunt counties and to the east. This front has some remarkably colder air behind it considering the season. We could get some light rain in the cold air behind the front.  The rain and thicker clouds will clear our southeast counties by the end of the morning:

Mon4a Mon7am Mon10a

Notice that at Monday 7:00am it’s still in the 50’s but the temperatures continue to drop down in the 40’s by 10am. Winds will be 25-30 mph out of the north so it’ll feel much colder than that. This will be quite a shock to everyone after our longest streak of 80° days so far this year.

But an even bigger shock is in store for us on Tuesday morning. The winds won’t be much but the clear skies (perfect conditions to view the lunar eclipse that morning) and light winds will allow the temperatures to get to freezing at least one more time this season. We’ll have a frost in the metroplex but the outlying areas to the north up to the Red River could drop to freezing:

NTX Overnight Lows Manual

The latest freeze on record for DFW is April 13th. If you are like me and have been planting since the last official freeze at DFW (31° on March 5th) you might need to cover those plants! Here is the extended below:

Extended PM

By the way, this VERY cold air that is moving across the central plains into the east coast is producing snow. Heavy amounts in Denver and even some light amounts in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.
US Snow Forecast

Because of CBS coverage of the Masters Golf Tournament we won’t be have an early news show on Sunday. Please follow our storm coverage on Twitter and on our website:

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