By Jeff Ray

For the second time this year we got into the 90’s today. It was quite a climb considering in was in the low 50’s this morning. This dry air and wall-to-wall sunshine pushed the temperature up a span of 38 degrees; the typical diurnal range (morning low to afternoon high) is 20 degrees. Today was the biggest jump in temperature in a day so far this Spring:

Almanac PM

All sunshine and no rain today and tomorrow. We’ve less than 4″ of rain so far this year, the driest start to a year since the Dust Bowl year of 1936:


It’s been dry for a stretch. Just look at the number of months at DFW that enjoyed ABOVE normal rainfall since the start of 2011; only 9 of the last 40. We’ve had four years in a row of below-normal rainfall. The last time we’ve had a long run of drought like this was back in the 80’s:

Monthly Deficits

Tomorrow we could easily have the warmest day of the year so far. The winds are going to pick up and teamed with the low humidity we have a Fire Watch in place:

NTX Tomorrow Highs1 NTX Fire Threat1

Good news,  we have rain in the forecast. We just have to get through the longest run of 90-degree weather since early October. We can see the storm system headed our way out off the coast of Washington:


On Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll see storms form along the dryline far to our west:


On Thursday the dry line gets pushed closer to us. With the humidity in place and an upper-air trough closing in from the west we not only have good chance of rain but also a chance of severe weather:


One of our long-range forecast models stalls the front over our southern counties on Friday (and part of Saturday). This would produce heavy rain along the front and just to the north. We’ll see where it sets up but for now we’ll keep a decent chance of rain in the forecast for Friday:


Here is the extended forecast. We expect cooler weather with the rain. There are indications in the long-range modeling that this cooler weather will be around until mid-May. If that forecast holds it would also mean good rains chances. Perhaps we can turn this year around in regards to our rainfall deficit. At least head toward (more) positive ground:

Extended PM