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Finally Rain Returns

(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Scott Padgett
Scott joined the CBS 11 Storm Team in September 2013 from sunny Mi...
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Good Wednesday Morning. Did you notice the humidity this morning? You can feel the change in the atmosphere with more moisture in place this morning which means our humidity levels are up. Take a look at how we started the day with our dew points. Right before 9 AM all of North Texas reported dew point temperatures in the 60s.

NTX DewPoint Plot

 

The dry line is still well west of Wichita Falls this AM and will remain mainly in West Texas through the day. By late afternoon will move a little eastward and there is the potential of some strong to severe storms in our far west counties in the late afternoon hours and early evening hours. Watch how the dry line meanders around through the day and into the night.

AM_RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide AM_RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide1 AM_RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide2

Thursday is our best chance of rain coverage for all of NTX as the dry line moves closer to NTX and the upper level trough that right now is near California moves into the central plains. Check out the dry line position Thursday early afternoon and into the evening.

AM_RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide3 AM_RPM 12km Dewpoints Wide4

So what does that mean with our rain chances and storm potential? The Future Sky forecast show the few isolated storms developing in our west counties by late afternoon hours and early evening hours.  During the morning commute Thursday, we could see some rain on the roads. Rain coverage and intensity picks up tomorrow late morning into the afternoon when we have more mixing and daytime heating. Also the upper trough will move into the southern/central plains and provide lift for the rain/storms to get going.

AM_NTX FutureCast AM_NTX FutureCast1 AM_NTX FutureCast2 AM_NTX FutureCast4 AM_NTX FutureCast5

By the late morning hours into the early afternoon we will see a line of storms  start to develop and then try to come together mainly east of I-35 tomorrow afternoon. There is a slight risk of severe weather including all of NTX tomorrow afternoon for the potential of storms producing quarter sized hail, winds up to 60pm and heavy rain. The tornado threat is low tomorrow. After the much needed rain we dry out for Mother’s day weekend with temps warming into the low 90s so make plans for a great Mother’s Day Brunch with the family.

Scott