By Jeff Ray

Warm, humid and windy today for Mother’s Day:


There is a slight risk for storms that form out to the west along the dryline get into our northwest corner:

Severe Risk

The risk of severe weather covers north Texas on Monday, especially along the I-20 corridor and south on Monday afternoon. Damaging winds will be the highest threat from these storms:

Severe Risk2

There is some VERY cold air moving into the central Rockies. They are expecting a record snow event in Denver and in the mountains to the west:

US TotalSnow Forecast

The cold air producing the snow will spend the day heading toward us. Look at Monday morning: 70’s here, 40’s in Amarillo, around freezing in Denver:

RPM 12km Temps Plains2

This strong cold front is going to run into some very humid and warm air over north Texas during the daytime heating. We might have some storms that form ahead of the front move through in the morning. That would temper the severity of the storms in the afternoon. Here is FutureSky Forecast show the heavy rain forming along and just behind the front on Monday night into Tuesday morning:

MondayNoon Monday9p Tue4am

All the forecast models are showing VERY heavy rain. Where the heaviest falls is difficult to forecast at this time but it looks like the eastern counties (again) will have the best chance to get multiples of inches:

NTX Futurecast Precip 36hr GFS

Like I mentioned earlier, there is some cold air behind this front. We expect the skies to clear out heading into Wednesday morning as the winds diminish. Temperatures could drop down into the upper 40’s over portions of north Texas:

NTX Overnight Lows Manual

This is a rare event to get temperatures this cold in mid-May. I looked from May 14th thru Sept.15th over the last 40 years at DFW. The only time it got down in the 40’s in that span over the last 40 years was once; it got down to 48° on May 20th, 1981.

Tease Tease1

We could easily end up with just enough wind or some lingering cloud cover to keep us in the low 50’s. But still, with a majority of the model guidance showing temperatures in the upper 40’s thought I should mention it. Regardless on Wednesday morning you’ll need a jacket on the kids as you send them out the door for school. Great weather after the chill morning to close the week and start the weekend:

Extended PM