We’ve had stormy weather over the last few days. Not the case for our Saturday… mostly sunny skies ruled with highs in the upper-80’s and humid conditions. It was windy; we had gusts hit 30-miles-per-hour. Mother’s Day looks just as warm, windy and humid. The difference will be more clouds as the atmosphere starts to “juice” up with a strong low-level jet bringing deep Gulf moisture:
We’ll have highs get into the upper 80’s with winds even stronger than Saturday. The only thing missing for spring storms to crop up is some type of lifting mechanism. The dryline will be too far to the west to threaten the metroplex. No upper-air trough moves in tomorrow, that’ll happen on Monday. So the atmosphere gets a full day to “charge-up” with heat and humidity waiting for a frontal boundary to set off the next round of strong storms and heavy rain.
That said the dryline will be active tomorrow, just too far to the west. As we close the day and get into the night we might have storms reach into our northwest county.There is a more significant chance of severe weather tomorrow in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa.
Overnight some of these western storms could form an impressive line and reach into the metroplex. That’s unlikely but we’ll keep an eye to the radar through the night. The chances for rain and storms rapidly increase on Monday as a strong cold front arrives to north Texas. The front will likely slow down over north Texas in the evening and help focus very heavy rain. We’ll watch for the severe threat as well: large hail and damaging winds are possible:
Here is just one of the forecast models showing very impressive rainfall amounts for north Texas on Monday/Monday night:
We believe the rain will go on Tuesday on the other side of the front in the cooler air. Most of this will fall in the first half of the day. This is MUCH cooler air behind this front. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 60’s. By Wednesday morning most of north Texas will wake up to temperatures in the upper 40’s. If the DFW Airport drops down to 49° on Wednesday morning it’ll be only the SECOND TIME IN 40 YEARS we’ve had a morning low in the 40’s from May 15th to August 31st.
Here is your extended forecast. Dry weather Wednesday to Saturday: