Spring Ends, Summer Begins

(credit: KTVT/KTXA) Jeff Ray
Jeff joined CBS 11 and TXA 21 in December 2010. He came to North T...
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Sunday is the start of Meteorological Summer (June 1st). The DFW Airport recorded .01″ of rain Saturday. It didn’t help the drought much, we end May with below normal rainfall. No surprise here; every month so far this year (and 14 or the last 16) have ended in deficit:

RAINFALL UPDATE

The rain chances for tomorrow are rather small, only about 20% for our SE quadrant. Highs tomorrow will in the upper 80’s to low 90’s°. Expect another very humid day.

NTX Rain Chances11AA

As we start the first week of June it’s looking rather dry. We have high pressure building up in the atmosphere from the southwest and expanding over Texas:

500mb Energy EURO2

A dome of High Pressure in the upper atmosphere is building over northern Mexico

500mb Energy EURO3

It will expand over Texas and stay overhead for all week

What this means is dry and hot weather for the first week of June:

RAIN CHANCE LINE GRAPH

We’ll have our longest run of 90° so far this year (at the start of May we had three days in a row in the 90’s).

Extended PM

Tomorrow is the start of the Hurricane Season. Interesting to note that the long range models continue to show a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico; starting around the Bay of Campeche and moving across northern Florida by the end of next weekend. I don’t know if it’ll take the name Arthur or not (become a Tropical Storm and the first named storm of the season) but will certainly bring a wash-out rain to parts of Florida. The areas in red and purple are gusts near tropical strength:

500mb Energy EURO2 500mb Energy EURO3 500mb Energy EURO4

For the second Spring in a row average temperatures were around normal or below the 30-year average. This is in stark contrast to the trend of the new century. Of the warmest springs on record (since 1899) six of the top twelve have occurred since the Spring of 2000. This Spring is 59th on that list, last Spring was 88th.

Spring Temps1

How does this bode for summer? Let’s look at a particular statistic of this Spring. We did NOT hit 90° today at DFW. This Spring we had four (4) days where the high reached 90° or above. Since 2000 we’ve been averaging eight (8) times. But the years have hardly been average. Look at the last ten Springs. In 2012 we had fourteen days of 90 plus highs, in 2006 that happened 20 times during the Spring of that year:

Days Above 90

If you wonder where I’m going with this lets look at the hottest summers on record at DFW. Compare in with the chart above. The hottest summer we ever recorded at DFW was back in 2011. All the Springs since 2005 that had a well-above normal number of days at or above 90° were all followed by VERY hot summers (four in the top twelve):

Days Above 90A

This is the forecast for this Summer by the company WeatherBell Analytics, a weather forecast company that consults the Energy and Agriculture industry. The “above average” and “below average” nomenclature is mine; they predict in actual degrees and percentages of normal. They have demonstrated excellent skill in seasonal forecasts. There is a hint of a cooler summer here in north Texas in their outlook. Above-normal rainfall looks to be waiting until this Fall.

Summer Outlook  Summer Outlook2

-J.Ray