Getting A Little Warmer
Clouds today kept temperatures in check. Not much in rain but for the seventh day in a row at DFW Airport a daytime high that stayed below-normal. Winds gusts hit 35-mph at DFW today; despite the cloudy conditions our Weather Watchers showed that we still reached into the 90′s at most locations across the metroplex.
We had a few spats of rain under the thicker clouds earlier in the day. Officially it amounted to only a trace of rain at the DFW airport; only a trio of our Weather Watchers had some rain show up in their yard:
We are going to close the month without a 100° day yet for the year at DFW. We typically experience our first 100° on June 30th. The chart below shows a nice June trend since the brutal summer of 2011:
The number of 100° days in July at DFW has trended downward as well. Lets hope that trend continues in the July coming up. As we look at the graphic below it reminds us that back in that record summer of 2011 EVERY DAY BUT JULY 1ST (when it only hit 98°) suffered a triple-digit high:
Not much of a rain chance tomorrow. With the sunshine we’ll have highs get into the mid-90′s. Expect another breezy day tomorrow. We don’t rule out storms but the chances are small and tilted to the eastern counties:
Mid-week a cold front will try to get close to us and stall out. Where it stalls will determine where the rain chances are best. We’ll also have to watch for storm complexes to develop along the frontal boundary to our northwest up in the Tx/Ok panhandle in the day. They could slide into north Texas in the early morning hours bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Below you can see how one of the long-range forecast models has the stationary front sitting over north Texas on Thursday morning.
The weather pattern suggests a rocky hurricane season along the east coast of the United States this year. It appears the first tropical storm of the season might form (it would be named “Arthur”) as we start July. The forecast models have Arthur winding up just off the coast of northern Florida. It would move up the coastline. It bears watching but I suspect that the heavy rain will remain on the east side of the low’s center and be out in the ocean. That said, strong winds and occasional rain with low overcast skies could be the July 4th weekend for most the mid-Atlantic states and the East Coast.
Here is the extended forecast below. It shows a 20% of thunderstorms during the afternoon and a 30% chance during the overnight hours. This is all going to be determined by the front that moves towards us on Tuesday night. How far south does it get? How long does it linger overhead?
Join me at 10pm tonight for the latest forecast. See you then!
-Jeff Ray, Weekend Meteorologist CBS11