North Texas Storm Chances Slight, But Around

The heat is going no where but at least there’s a small chance for a storm to head your way today. Not as windy as days past but enough of a breeze to help with the feel like temperature this afternoon that will crack 100°:

WK_AM_TODAYS TIMELINE 9am

There are a couple of reasons to be optimistic over storm chances today. Overnight rain to our west and north have produced outflow boundaries that could help trigger storms during the afternoon. There is also an upper-air disturbance moving over us from the west coming over the ridge of high pressure sitting over New Mexico:

outflow North Texas Storm Chances Slight, But Around 500mb Through

The storm chances are mostly north today. Tomorrow they shift to the northeast and will likely be more sparse. It’ll be slightly hotter tomorrow as well:

Extended2 TX Rain ChancesTUE

Rain chances in July are difficult to come by. The jet stream is almost always way to the north while high pressure builds over the southern third of the United States. When the dome of hot air is centered to our west we get the side where sinking air dominates the weather pattern.

US Futurecast CBS Total Rain1

This means that hot and dry conditions will dominate the weather story. Look at the seven-day rainfall predication from one of the long range models (the American GFS).

US Futurecast CBS Total Rain

Slightly above normal daytime highs seem to be the new normal. It took a record rain on the 4th of July to knock those temperatures down for a few days but we’ve had above normal highs at DFW since mid-June. That trend continues into next work week:

Monthly Outlook   Ten Day Graph

Here is your extended forecast:

INT - Extended AM CSV

 

 

More from Jeff Ray

More From CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

Drip Pan: CBS Local App
Drip Pan: Weather App
Drip Pan: Restaurant Week 365

Watch & Listen LIVE