By Jeff Ray

A hot Sunday in store for us as we close the month of July:

AM_Morning Skycast Current 8 to 8

There are slight storm chances today. We again find ourselves in between two areas of high pressure. In this “Col” (literally “the lowest point between two peaks”) we’ve enjoyed some cooling yet isolated storms over the last week. Today the favored area will be along the Red River and in our NW corner:

PM US Airport Cast Extended2

Starting tomorrow a massive dome of high pressure will move in over Texas from the east. This will effectively shut off our storm activity and notch up the temperatures. By Wednesday or Thursday we could be looking at heat advisories for at least the eastern half of north Texas. The western half will likely suffer high fire danger:

PM US Airport Casta FW_SKYCAST_TEMP_CHANGE

An interesting sidebar about these triple digit highs ahead of us as we roll into what is traditional the hottest and driest month of the year. The official reporting site of north Texas, DFW Airport, has logged four 100° days so far this summer. And they showed up for the first time this year just recently, all of them came in a row from Friday, July 22nd thru last Monday.

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This despite the fact this is the 14th warmest summer on record so far this year. When we look at the 13 summers that were WARMER to this date (by average temperature)we find all of them had many more 100 degree days by now. The average number of days 100° or above for the 13 summers-to-date is 24. We’ve only had four. So while the really brutal heat of summer has stayed away so far none the less we’ve had a steady parade of warm days and warm nights.

We’ve also had generous rain for summer time. So far this is the wettest summer in the last nine years and the 22nd wettest by this date on record (records go back to 1898):

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On average the Atlantic churns out its second named tropical storm of the season by August 1st. We are expecting a busy end to the Atlantic hurricane season. As if on cue a system moving over the Caribbean right now could get into the Gulf. Right now it is simply a tropical wave (it has no center of circulation). But the National Hurricane Center is putting a 70% chance of formation by day five.

Tropical Tracker Scene Master1a Tropical Tracker Scene MasterS

It could take the full five days to develop into a named storm (it would be “Earl”). By Tuesday it should be south of Cuba heading west. By the end of the week it will likely be over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen rapidly:

Tropical Tracker Scene Master4 Tropical Tracker Scene Master5

Most of the forecast models have the high pressure ridge that will be over Texas keeping the storm well south of Texas. We’ll keep an eye on it for you. Until then the hot and dry weather of August is arriving on cue. We could easily double the number of 100° days this summer by the time we get to Thursday. We are at least hoping that some of the clouds and moisture from the Gulf could dampen the heat a little around here by next weekend:

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