TEXAS (CBSDFW.COM/CBSNEWS.COM) – Will Ted Cruz lose his Senate seat to Democrat Beto O’Rourke? It’s possible, but O’Rourke will certainly have his work cut out for him.

Texas is a pretty Republican state, right?

It is, although a fair number of political observers assume it will probably lean more Democratic in the future due to demographic changes. But it’s hard to know when that will happen. And in the meantime, the GOP has a firm grip on the older white voters that make up a large share of the Texas electorate.

So Ted Cruz is safe?

Maybe. On the one hand, he’s running in a state that’s still dominated by the GOP. On the other, Cruz isn’t the most popular guy, with a February University of Texas poll showing that only 40 percent of voters approve of his performance, while 41 percent disapprove.

And despite winning the state by nine points in 2016, President Trump may not be so popular either; according to a January poll from Gallup, only 39 percent of Texans approved of the president, while 54 percent disapproved.

This would seem to indicate that O’Rourke, an El Paso-area congressman, has a shot at knocking off Cruz. And sure enough, a Quinnipiac poll from last week found their race was very close, with Cruz winning 47 percent to O’Rourke’s 44 percent, which is within the margin of error.

Then O’Rourke has a chance?

Yes, there is a chance that Beto O’Rourke becomes the first Democrat to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate since 1993. But again, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

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