Washington’s Birthday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 75. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms towards daybreak. Low around 64. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 72. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 42. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Some cold rsin heavy at times. High near 46. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 53. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 61. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

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Summary of Impacts… Multiple rounds of rain, heavy at times, are expected during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Despite the recent dry spell, extraordinary moisture combined with multiple rounds of precipitation will necessitate some river and possible instances of flash flood concerns during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Areas generally east of the I-35 corridor stand the best risk for flooding.

General timing of rain… The first wave of rain is expected to occur on late Monday night into Tuesday morning with the highest rain chances (around 90%) near and west of a Hamilton to D/FW to Bonham line. During this time period, up to 1.5″ of rain will be possible. Recent drought across the area should allow for decent infiltration rates, though typical low spots and/or areas with seasonally dormant vegetation or due to recent fire activity may need to be monitored for a potential flood threat.

Through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday evening, the axis of showers and thunderstorms will shift eastward to near the I-35 corridor (near and north of the Waco area) by noon. By the evening hours, the best rain chances will be east of I-35 and north of the I-20 corridor. Heavy rain and possible training deep moist convective elements may present a flood threat here, especially across the larger urban centers where infiltration rates will generally be lower. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the best rain chances will be across East and Central TX as the axis of best lift is shunted eastward. Again, recent drought conditions should help initially help to hinder excessive runoff. If heavy rain persists long enough, however, some flood issues could surface.

Storm total (Tuesday through Thursday) rainfall estimates… Estimates of storm total rainfall are fluid in nature and will be dependent on the location of best lift and frontal positioning. In general, some of the heftier rainfall totals of greater than 4 inches of rain are quite probable across parts of North and Central TX. The most likely area to see storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches is near and east of a Fairfield to Corsicana to Terrell to Paris line. Areas closer to the I-35 corridor may see rainfall totals in the 2 to 4-inch range. The heaviest rain will taper off Wednesday night and into Thursday. Additional rain is anticipated Thursday through Saturday, especially north of I-20. Whether or not the ingredients for another round of heavy rain exist will be determined over the next several days.

We’ll also be dealing with a cold front late Tuesday. Wednesday’s highs may not get above 40 in some areas with the potential for some light freezing rain or drizzle northwest of a Gainesville to Mineral Wells line. Well to the northwest of the Dallas Fort Worth area. However, if the air is a bit colder, this line might sneak a little bit farther south and east. As of now, this is not a big concern.