DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) – A new analysis from UT Southwestern Medical Center looks at the current state of COVID-19 in North Texas and makes predictions for the future.

It shows COVID-19 cases are on the rise in both Dallas County and Collin County and people in the 30 to 50 age bracket are most impacted.

Dallas County Raises Coronavirus Risk Level Due To Rise In Cases, Hospitalizations

Hospitalizations are also being impacted in North Texas, up 18% since early October.

However, the numbers remains significantly lower than what they were back in July.

”That is the primary metric that we look at because that is the most accurate and timely data that we have available,” Associate Director of UT Southwestern’s Clinical Informatics Center Dr. Mujeeb Basit said.

Dr. Basit said this real patient data has allowed them make predictions for the months to come.

In Dallas County, total COVID-19 hospitalizations are predicted to increase to 270 to 540 cases by October 23 and in Tarrant County, 380 to 700 cases per day.

In both counties, it’s also predicted there will also be a slight increase in patients being admitted into the ICU.

“If you just drew a straight line from what we have seen in the last two weeks, you get a pretty good approximation of where we’re going unless we do something to change,” Dr. Basit said.

He said what happens over time will depends on human behavior, like often North Texans are wearing masks, social distancing and staying home.

Right now, preventative measures are estimated to be 61% effective in Dallas County.

If they grew to 68% effective, it’s predicted we’d see less than 100 new infections a day by next January.

“We really need to emphasize that personal responsibility so we can continue to benefit from the things that we have started to re-enjoy,” Dr. Basit said.

 

Erin Jones

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